Politi Cymreig yn dechrau prifio

Y Senedd:  ready for a home-grown Welsh polity starting to emerge

Erthygl Gymraeg. English language version below

ERS dechrau’r oes ddatganoli yn 1999, tasg cymharol hawdd oedd diffinio’r sefyllfa wleidyddol yng Nghymru.

Roedd Plaid Cymru yn sefyll dros y mudiad cenedlaethol yn ei gyfanrwydd, a’r pleidiau eraill wedyn yn  ffurfiau, neu’n ganghennau o’r meddylfryd unoliaethol gyda’r sefyllfa hon i’w weld yn un gadarn a di-symud.

Ond gyda phob arwydd yn awgrymu ein bod bellach yn symud i oes ol-ddatganoli, mae’n ddiddorol gweld sut mae’r diffiniad hwn yn dechrau gwegian o’r naill ochor a’r llall.

Gyda pholiti Cymreig newydd yn dechrau ymffurfio fel ymateb i hynny.

Cymru’n symud i oes ol-ddatganoli

Gellid dadlau bod mwy wedi digwydd yn y cyfeiriad hwn yng Nghymru y dair blynedd diwethaf nag  a welwyd yn yr 17 mlynedd cyn hynny( dyfodiad y Cynulliad yn 1999).

Pleidlais ysgytwol Brexit oedd y cam cyntaf yn y broses hon, a thwf YES Cymru fel ymateb i hynny oedd yr ail gam.

Rwan, mae’n ymddangos bod yna drydydd cam ar waith, h.y cynrychiolaeth wleidyddol wahanol i adlewyrchu’r ddau shift mawr hyn  sydd wedi newid cymaint ar bethau yma.

Y monolith unoliaethol yn dechrau ymddatod

O ran yr ochor unoliaethol yng Nghymru,  mae yna arwyddion bod y monolith hwn yn dechrau ymddatod yn enwedig o gofio  dyfodiad Labour For Independence.

Roedd un arolwg eleni yn dangos bod tua 30% o aelodau Llafur yng Nghymru yn agored i’r syniad o annibyniaeth i Gymru bellach.

Ac fe roedd ymddangosiad un o gefnogwyr LFI, cyn-golwr Cymru Neville Southall yn y rali a gynhaliwyd ym Merthyr y penwythnos diwethaf, a’r derbyniad gwresog a gafodd yno, yn hwb pellach i’r safbwynt hwn.

Ac mae’r un symud i’w weld yn digwydd o fewn y mudiad cenedlaethol gyda ffurfiau newydd yn dechrau ymffurfio fel ymateb i’r sylweddoliad bod hanes ar garlam ar hyn o bryd.

Am flynyddoedd mawr, Plaid oedd megis yr UNIG eglwys ble gallai cenedlaetholwyr ymaelodi ynddi os oeddent o blaid rhyddid i Gymru.

Fe safodd yr eglwys hon yn gadarn ers blynyddoedd er gwaetha’r anniddigrwydd cyson a fynegwyd o dro i  dro gan rai o’r ffyddloniaid yn y seddau ar yr ochor.

Ymgais i  geisio diwygio’r eglwys genedlaethol

Cafodd y galwadau i ddiwygio a diweddaru’r “eglwys genedlaethol” hon eu personoleiddio ar ffurf Neil McEvoy yn ddiweddar, ac ymdrechion y cymeriad lliwgar o Gaerdydd i’r cyfeiriad hwn yn fodd i gynhesu rhai ond cynhyrfu eraill ymhlith y ffyddloniaid.

Bydd tynged McEvoy yn cael ei benderfynu mewn cynhadledd fis nesaf, ond beth bynnag fo’r canlyniad, debyg y bydd ymdrech gan y Blaid i ail-gyflwyno eu hunain i’r cyhoedd yn sgil y saga hon.

Ond gyda’r broses yma’n llusgo mlaen cyhyd,law yn llaw gyda’r cyffro gwleidyddol allanol roedd hi bron yn anorfod y byddai ffurfiannu eraill yn datblygu y tu hwnt i’r fam eglwys.

Un carfan sydd fel petaen nhw’n gweld sut mae’r gwynt yn chwythu’n wleidyddol ydi’r grwp UNDOD, sydd am gyflwyno gweledigaeth pur wahanol a radical i bobol Cymru gyda’u galwad am weriniaeth sosialaidd, ffeministaidd.

Er nad ydi Undod wedi ffurfio’n blaid wleidyddol fel y cyfryw, mae’n bosib mai gyda Labour For Independence y bydden nhw’n fwya cyffyrddus yn ideolegol- gan ddangos eto sut mae’r hen batrwm sefydlog yn cael  ei chwalu heddiw.

Dwy weledigaeth Gymreig newydd

Ac mae GWLAD GWLAD hefyd bellach yn cynnig gweledigaeth arall i’r etholwyr Cymreig. Y pwyslais y tro hwn ar gyfuno y traddodiadol gyda phwyslais newydd ar entrepreneuriaeth a’r sector breifat i yrru Cymru yn ei blaen.

Dydi’r system etholiadol Gymreig ddim yn ffafriol iawn i ffurfiau gwleidyddol newydd, ac mae sawl un wedi awgrymu y dylai unrhyw ffurfiau newydd aros tan y ceir system decach yn ei lle megis STV( y bleidlais sengl drosglwyddadwy).

Ond er mor synhwyrol yw’r awgrym hwnnw ar sawl ystyr, mae dyn yn cael y synnwyr fod digwyddiadau’r cyfnod hwn wedi goddiweddyd hynny rhywsut.

Bu disgwyl hir amdano, ond mae politi Cymreig cynhenid yn dechrau datblygu.

After twenty years of drift, some life at last!

DURING the twenty year devolution era, it was pretty easy to identify the political terrain in Wales.

Plaid Cymru represented the national movement in its entirety, with all the other parties representing the unionist mindset, and its branch sections  in Wales within the National Assembly.

But with all the signs pointing to a realisation that Wales is now entering a post-devolution era in one shape or the other, it’s fascinating to observe how these two blocks are starting to fragment.

And how a brand new Welsh polity is starting to emerge as a  result.

Two huge catalysts for change

It could be argued that more has actually happened here in Wales over the past three years in this respect than in the previous 17 years since the inception of the National Assembly in 1999.

The  groundbreaking Brexit vote in 2016 was the initial catalyst, with the growth of YES Cymru as a result of that vote providing another important catalyst almost immediately in its wake.

Today’s YouGov Poll, putting support for Welsh Independence now at 25% is a further indication of the direction of travel.

Now, it appears that these two catalysts both in their own right and together have led to the third logical step in the process,i.e fresh political expressions to articulate all the changes that have occurred since 2016.


 Unionist monolith challenged by Labour for Indy

As far as the unionist block is concerned, this monolith is now being challenged by the emergence of Labour For Independence.

With a YES Cymru survey last year indicating that some 30% of Labour members in Wales were positively-minded towards the concept of Welsh Independence, one can see how this new group could find a ready-made audience for their message.

The appearance of Labour For Independence supporter, ex-Wales keeper Neville Southall at the Independence Rally at Merthyr last weekend, and the rousing reception he received from the crowd, gave LFI further impetus and further encouragement.

And the same shifts are now taking place within the nationalist camp as well with new formations appearing to take advantage of the rapidly shifting political sands.

Reform bid within traditional nationalist church

For donkey’s years, Plaid was the only church where supporters of Welsh independence could attend. This “national church” has held its ground for years despite many dark mutterings in the pews.

The calls for reform and renewal within its ranks has been personalised of late in the form of Neil Mcevoy, who has managed both to galvanise and alienate different parts of the congregation at the same  time.

His fate as a party representative will be sealed at a conference next month, but whatever the outcome, Plaid will surely be seeking to re-launch itself afresh in its wake.

Retrench or Reform is the question

With the national church so taken up with its own internal issues, and the retrench or reform question taking such an eternity to resolve, allied to the external political convulsions, it is perhaps no wonder that a space has opened up that others are now seeking to fill.

One group which has sensed the way the wind is blowing is UNDOD, who are presenting a radical new vision to the people of Wales with their call for a socialist, feminist republic. That should get the punters talking at the very least!

Undod to give punters plenty to talk about

Although Undod haven’t actually formed themselves as a political party as such, it would appear that their main ideological bed fellows will be Labour for Independence- yet another indication of how the old loyalties are now being fractured.

And now the Welsh public also have another political offering to consider, with GWLAD GWLAD, combining a traditionalist approach with a new emphasis on entrepreneurship and private enterprise to drive Wales forward.

The electoral system in Cymru is not the most conducive for new political groupings, and many have suggested that these should wait until a more equitable voting system is in place( STV) that can ensure that every vote counts.

That is a sensible suggestion in many respects, but perhaps events have now overtaken such practical considerations

It’s been a long wait, but a home-grown and distinctive Welsh polity is now emerging.

 

 

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