Pol yn dangos sut mae’r gwynt yn chwythu

A plague on all your houses”- new poll shows huge level of public anger towards the present parties

Erthygl Gymraeg. English language version below

DYWED  50% o’r etholwyr nad ydyn nhw’n credu bod y pleidiau presennol yn eu cynrychioli’n effeithiol bellach.

Mewn sampl enfawr o 8,000 o etholwyr ar draws Gwledydd Prydain a gynhaliwyd gan gwmni Lord Ashcroft ddiwedd fis Mawrth, dywedodd hanner y rhai a holwyd nad oedden nhw’n teimlo bod y pleidiau sy’n bodoli ar hyn o bryd yn cynrychioli eu barn hwy erbyn hyn.

Pleidleisiau’r dadrithiedig ar gael i bleidiau newydd

Roedd pol pellach o 6,000 o bobol  wedyn yn dangos y gallai dwy blaid newydd sbon, un yn fwy “rhyddfrydig” ei golygon, ac un yn fwy “ceidwadol” ei golygon ddenu pleidleisiau’r 50% dadrithiedig hyn.

Does ond angen edrych ar y sefyllfa bresennol yn Nhy’r Cyffredin i ddeall cyd-destun hyn oll,  gyda’r pleidiau yno fel petaent yn gwneud eu gorau glas i elyniaethu’r cyhoedd, a gwyrdroi’r penderfyniad hanesyddol i adael yr Undeb Ewropeaidd.

“Brexit i’r Seneddwyr” yn cythruddo’r cyhoedd

Mae’r  holl ystrywiau  gwahanol sydd ar waith yno, a’r gyfres o bleidleisiau ychwanegol sydd wedi’u cynnal yno’n ddiweddar i greu “Brexit i’r Seneddwyr” wedi rhoi’r argraff o ddosbarth o bobol sydd yn gwbwl ddall a byddar i farn y cyhoedd y tu hwnt i furiau dethol a chaeedig San Steffan. Neithiwr( nos Fercher), pleidleisiodd y seneddwyr dros ail-estyniad i Erthygl 50.

Dadlennol oedd gweld yr un geiriau’n cael eu defnyddio gan bobol ar draws y grwpiau ffocws a gynhaliodd Lord Ashcroft o ran eu barn am y pleidiau presennol: “out of touch”,untrustworthy” ” divided”,confused”.

Yn ail bol Lord Ashcroft, gofynwyd i dros 6,000 o bobol sut y byddent yn bwrw’u pleidlais mewn etholiad cyffredinol pe bai dwy blaid newydd hefyd yn cynnig eu hunain i’r cyhoedd gyda pholisiau gwahanol ar faterion megis trethiant, lles, mewnfudo, gwasanaethau cyhoeddus a chysylltiadau gydag Ewrop ayb. Mewn senario felly, byddai cefnogaeth i’r Ceidwadwyr yn disgyn i 18% a chefnogaeth i Lafur yn disgyn i 14%.

Cefnogaeth i blaid “ryddfrydig” newydd a phlaid “geidwadol” newydd

Yn ail yn yr etholiad dychmygol hwn, gyda 23% o’r  bleidlais fyddai’r blaid “ryddfrydig” newydd, a’i chefnogwyr yn hapus gyda’r lefelau mewnfudo presennol, am weld gweithredu eang ar newid hinsawdd  ac yn awyddus i Brydain aros yn agos iawn at Ewrop. Ar ben y pol fodd bynnag, fyddai’r blaid “geidwadol” newydd ar begwn arall y spectrwm gyda 27% o’r bleidlais: plaid  a fyddai’n rhoi pwys ar werthoedd mwy traddodiadol, am reoli mewnfudo ac yn ymwrthod a gwladwriaeth yn ymyrryd yn ormodol ym mywydau unigolion.

Diddorol hefyd oedd gweld yr un union un eiriau yn cael eu defnyddio gan y ddwy garfan dan sylw wrth ddisgrifio’r math o blaid newydd y carent ei weld yn ymddangos: ” Gonest“, ” Atebol” “Dibynadwy” a “Realistig”

Trawiadol hefyd oedd deall bod egwyddorion fel hyn hyd yn oed yn bwysicach na pholisiau penodol ym marn y rhai a holwyd.

Er modd oddefol a di-gyffro y mae pobol ar yr ynysoedd hyn yn gyffredinol, gall dyn ddim ond synhwyro bod yna gorwynt gwleidyddol ar ei ffordd a fydd yn ysgubo’r senedd presennol o’r neilltu  cyn hir. Canrifoedd yn ol, brwydr yn erbyn y “Divine Right of Kings” oedd hi. Brwydr yn erbyn y “Divine Right of Parliamentarians” yw hi heddiw berig.

Barn Ein GWLAD: Er mai Lloegr oedd prif ffocws y pol piniwn hwn( er bod peth samplo yng Nghymru) mae yna wersi ynddo inni hefyd. Fyddai hanner yr etholwyr fan hyn yn fodlon cefnu ar y pleidiau presennol yn yr etholiad nesaf yma yn 2021, fel mae’r pol hwn yn awgrymu?

O edrych ar ganlyniadau Etholiad Y Cynulliad 2016, gallwn weld fod  Llafur wedi cael 34%, Ceidwadwyr 21%, Plaid 20% ac UKIP 13% o’r bleidlais boblogaidd. Debyg y byddai’n rhaid  ffactora’r patrymau di-symud sy’n cymaint rhan o wleidyddiaeth yng Nghymru i fewn i hyn oll.  A thybio efallai  mai chwarter yr etholwyr a fyddai’n fodlon newid eu trywydd gwleidyddol yma o’i gymharu gyda’r hanner o etholwyr a nodwyd ym mhol piniwn Ashcroft. Ond hyd yn oed wedyn, gallai hynny rhyddhau tua 20% o bleidlais bosib ar gyfer ffurfiau gwleidyddol newydd yma. Pwy fydd yn ymateb i’r cyfle hanesyddol hwn?

Mae’n bosib wrth gwrs mai fflyd o ymgeiswyr annibynwyr- y tu hwnt i unrhyw system bleidiol a fydd yn manteisio fwyaf ar y cyfle hwn. Gallai rhywun ddychmygu hyn yn apelio at lawer yma yng Nghymru o gofio am bwysigrwydd y lleol a’r rhanbarthol i bobol fan hyn.

Ond falle gall plaid hybrid fel Ein GWLAD , sy’n rhoi pwys ar synnwyr cyffredin ac  agwedd traed ar y ddaear wrth lunio polisiau apelio hefyd at y gynulleidfa newydd yma. Wrth beidio bod yn rhy glwm i’r chwith na’r dde traddodiadol, ond yn hytrach chwilio am atebion synhwyrol sy’n siwtio amgylchiadau neilltuol Cymru fel gwlad, mae’n bosib bod modd denu pleidleisiau o blith y DDWY garfan newydd sydd wedi’u dynodi gan Lord Ashcroft.

 

50% of voters ready to abandon established parties

AN explosive new poll has revealed that half the voters in these isles say they feel “unrepresented” by the current political parties.

In a large sample of 8,000 voters, the poll organized by Lord Ashcroft at the end of March, showed that half of those questioned felt that their opinions were not adequately represented by any of the established political parties.

A further poll of 6,000 voters showed that should two new parties be formed, one with a more “liberal” outlook, and one with a more “conservative” take on things, they could win the votes of 50% of these disillusioned voters.

Parliamentarians oblivious to the rising tide of anger

All one needs to do in effect is take one look at the House of Commons to understand this huge amount of public alienation with the present political parties. The majority of Parliamentarians seem fixated on seeking to alienate the general public outside the  select bubble of Westminster, and seem completely oblivious to the rising tide of anger at their attempt to defeat the democratic decision to leave the EU.

The various shenanigans and set of repeated indicitive votes to try and come up with a “Parliamentary Brexit”  to overrule the general public’s  referendum decision  has just reinforced this sense of a class of people who are just so out of touch with public opinion it is almost surreal. Their latest ruse passed last night( Wednesday) is to ask the EU for a second extension to Article 50.

“Out of touch” and “untrustworthy”- voters on political parties

It’s very revealing to read the words that cropped up time and time again in the focus groups that Lord Ashcroft held as part of this polling exercise, when respondents were asked to describe the present political parties: “out of touch”, “untrustworthy”, “confused” and “divided” being amongst the most prominent ones.

In the second poll held by Lord Ashcroft with 6,000 respondents, individuals were invited to imagine that two new parties had been set up for a UK general election, one with a “liberal” outlook on life and one with a more “conservative” take on things based on a set of issues ranging from immigration, welfare, taxation, business and international affairs. In such a scenario, the Conservatives would drop to 18% and Labour down to 14% of the vote.

In second place in this “election”, would be the new “liberal” party on 23% of the vote: a party relaxed about immigration, wanting large-scale action to combat climate change, and seeking a close relationship with the EU. But, on top of the poll would be the new “conservative” party on 27% of the vote: a party which would seek to control immigration, oppose the notion of a “nanny state”, and want the UK to follow a more independent line in international affairs.

Honesty, Trust and Transparency- is it really too much to ask for?

It was also revealing to see that both the liberal leaning and the conservative leaning segments within the poll had used almost exactly the same descriptors, this time when asked what they would like their new party to be: “Honest” “Transparent” “Trustworthy” and “Realistic”  .

It’s also very striking to see that such essential principles were deemed to be more important than the actual policies themselves by those questioned in the polling.

Although the people of these isles are fairly passive and apolitical in general , one can sense that there is a hurricane building up which will soon sweep the vast majority of the present parliamentarians away. Centuries ago, the democratic battle was against the “divine right of kings”. Today, it woud appear that the democratic battle is against the “divine right of parliamentarians

Ein GWLAD comments: Even though this poll was mainly focused on England(although sampling also took place in Wales) there are important lessons to be learnt here. How would it look if 50% of the Welsh electors do decide to move away from the established parties in the 2021 Welsh election?

If we look at the results of the last Assembly Poll in 2016, we can see that Labour won 34% of the vote, Conservatives 21%, Plaid 20% and UKIP 13%. Now,of course one has to factor in the in-built unchanging nature of Welsh politics into the equation here. But even if one was to consider that only a quarter of voters change course  here compared to the half of voters identified by Lord Ashcroft- that would still constitute around 20% share of the vote up for grabs. Who’s up for that challenge then?

It’s possible that what we’ll see is a deluge of independent candidates, free from any political parties as such voted in. You can imagine that such an approach would be popular in Wales, bearing in mind the importance of local and regional identity to people here.

But a hybrid party like Ein GWLAD, which basically means taking a common sense and realistic approach to policy-making could take  advantage of the new opportunities as well. After all, by not being aligned to the left or the right, but coming up with sensible and appropriate solutions for Wales’s unique circumstances, it’s possible the party could appeal to elements within BOTH of new electoral segments identified in Lord Ashcroft’s poll.

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