Mon. Aug 19th, 2019

Troi ymgyrch UKIP ar ei ben

UKIP- an idiosyncratic party with dodgy translations to boot: Croeso Y Gymru( Welcome the Wales). 

Erthygl Gymraeg. English language version below

YR wythnos hon, cyhoeddodd UKIP Cymru eu bod yn lansio ymgyrch i ddiddymu’r Cynulliad Cenedlaethol, gan anelu i gynnal refferendwm ar y pwnc yn 2024.

Mae’n edrych yn fwyfwy tebygol y bydd Prydain yn gadael yr UE wythnos i heddiw, sef Dydd Gwener nesaf, Mawrth 29ain,  a hynny yn ddilyn y methiant trychinebus i gyrraedd cytuneb ffurfiol gyda’r UE.  Byddai hynny’n fuddugoliaeth anhygoel i UKIP a’u hunig bolisi i bob pwrpas, ac yn dyst i’r hyn y gall plaid fechan ond penderfynol ei chyflawni mewn gwirionedd.Ond hefyd berig yn golygu’r diwedd iddyn nhw wrth i’w holl   raison d’etre fel plaid ddiflannu.

UKIP Cymru yn edrych am ffordd i gadw’r sioe ar y lon

Dim rhyfedd o’r herwydd bod UKIP Cymru yn dechrau edrych am achos arall i gadw’r sioe ar y lon.  Dyna feddwl felly am gael gwared ar y Cynulliad Cenedlaethol trwy gynnal refferendwm i’r diben hwnnw yn 2024. All hefyd wrth gwrs ganiatau i’w harweinydd, Gareth Bennett a’r 6 aelod etholedig arall aros ar y tren grefi am 5 mlynedd arall ym Mae Caerdydd. Cyflawni dau ddiben mewn un. Clyfar mewn ffordd.

Mae’n debyg hefyd bod UKIP Cymru yn cael ei defnyddio fel math o trojan horse gan y Wladwriaeth Brydeinig yn union wedi Brexit i dynhau ei gafael ar Gymru, a’u bod am achub y blaen ar genedlaetholwyr yn hyn o beth.

Cafwyd ymateb ffyrnig i gyhoeddiad Gareth Bennett o blith y Sanhedrin  arferol yng Nghymru. Sut alla’i feddwl am y ffasiwn beth oedd y farn gyffredin yn eu plith. Ond tybed na ddylid croesawu galwad UKIP am refferendwm i ddileu’r Cynulliad, ei droi ar ei ben a’i ddefnyddio’n hytrach fel refferendwm ar annibyniaeth i Gymru?  Hynny ydi,  dadlau dros ddewis binary rhwng diddymu’r Cynulliad ac Annibyniaeth. Gallai fod UKIP wedi gwneud cymwynas gyda phawb wrth osod y sylfaen ar gyfer pleidlais o’r fath yn 2024. A hynny cyn i unrhyw blaid genedlaetholgar ddechrau’i gyflwyno i sylw’r cyhoedd!

Byddai pleidlais fel hyn er enghraifft yn gorfodi Aelodau Llafur Cymru a’r Ceidwadwyr Cymreig oddi ar y ffens a gwneud iddyn nhw benderfynu naill o blaid diddymu’r Cynulliad neu ddewis Annibyniaeth. Ac er mwyn cadw eu swyddi breision ym Mae Caerdyddd, a’u lle hwythau ar y tren grefi, does dim angen doethineb Solomon ar ddyn i weld sut y byddai’r gwynt yn chwythu yn fanno…..

Pleidlais unoliaethol galed o tua 30% yma

Cafodd UKIP 14% o’r bleidlais yn Etholiad Cymru yn 2016. Mae’n debyg mewn unrhyw refferendwm o’r math hwn yn 2024, gallent bwyso ar ryw 16% arall, a fyddai’n debyg o ystyried eu hunain yn Brydeinwyr yn hytrach na Chymry hyd ddydd y Farn.

Debyg hefyd y gallai’r bloc hwn berswadio hyd at 10% i 15% arall mai dychwelyd i gol San Steffan fyddai orau i bawb yn wyneb holl fethiannau datganoli dros y blynyddoedd- a fyddai wedyn yn cyfateb i gyfanswm allai gyrraedd hyd at 45% o’r bleidlais.

Byddai hynny’n gadael 55% o’r bleidlais ar gyfer yr ochr IA i anelu ato fel man cychwyn. Mae’n debyg mai’r garfan helaethaf yma fyddai’r bleidlais genedlaetholgar feddal (pleidleiswyr traddodiadol Y Blaid Lafur sydd ag hunaniaeth Gymreig gref) gyda charfan llai wedyn yn bleidlais genedlaetholgar galed( Plaid, Ein GWLAD, YES Cymru ayb). Byddai’n hanfodol hefyd apelio at garfan arall o etholwyr, pobol efallai na fyddai’r narratif genedlaetholgar yn apelio atynt ond y byddai’r posibilrwydd o ail-ddychmygu democratiaeth Gymreig a chyflwyno ystod o bolisiau creadigol i ateb gofynion y gymdeithas yng Nghymru yn gallu apelio.

S’dim amheuaeth y byddai unrhyw bleidlais fel hon yn anodd i’w hennill ar un ystyr.  Byddai neges UKIP am fethiant datganoli dros y blynyddoedd yn taro tant hefo llawer iawn o bobl yng Nghymru y tu allan i’r “bubble” ym Mae Caerdydd a’u swigod cysylltiedig yn y cyfryngau a’r byd diwylliannol yng Nghymru. Debyg hefyd y byddent yn llawer fwy effeithiol yn hyn o beth nag ymgyrch True Wales nol ym mhleidlais Pwerau Ychwanegol yn 2011.

Anghenfil yng Nghaerdydd yn hawlio sylw, adnoddau a phobol

Byddai llawer o bobol yma yn y gogledd er enghraifft yn dweud nad ydi datganoli wedi cyfrannu’r un dim i’n bywydau fan hyn. Dim ond wedi creu anghenfil barus yn Gaerdydd sy’n mynnu’r holl sylw,  yn llyncu’r holl adnoddau ac yn dwyn ein holl bobol ifanc. A dyna fyddai’r stori hefyd yng ngweddill y Gymru wledig ac yn y cymoedd hefyd.

Felly bydd gan UKIP fantais fawr wrth gychwyn ymgyrch fel hon gan y byddant yn gallu pwyntio at 20 mlynedd o fethiannau o dan y drefn ddatganoli. Mae hynny’n gwneud hi’n hanfodol fod ymgyrch bleidiol dros Annibyniaeth yn cychwyn rwan hyn. Mae YES Cymru eisoes yn gwneud gwaith gwych yn y cyfeiriad hwn. Mae Plaid bellach wedi datgan o’i blaid.Ac wrth gwrs, mae Annibyniaeth i Gymru hefyd yn gwbwl ganolog yn maniffesto Ein GWLAD a gyhoeddwyd yr wythnos ddiwethaf.

Ac efallai bod angen i’r carfannau hyn dyrchu’n ddyfnach i beth o boblogrwydd UKIP mewn etholiadau a fu yng Nghymru dros y blynyddoedd diwethaf a derbyn bod mwy iddo na jest hiliaeth ac anoddefgarwch at bobol. Eu bod nhw rhywsut wedi gallu tapio mewn i rai o bryderon cymdeithasol, diwylliannol ac economaidd pobol mewn modd nad yw’r elite llywodraethol yn Llundain na Bae Caerdydd erioed wedi ei wneud mewn difrif.

Felly, diolch i UKIP am danio’r ymgyrch dros annibyniaeth i Gymru. Da iawn Gareth!

 

 

Turning UKIP’s campaign on its head

THIS week, UKIP in Wales announced they were to launch a new campaign to abolish the Welsh Assembly, aiming to achieve that by means of a referendum in 2024.

It looks increasingly likely that the UK will leave the EU a week today, March 29th in view of the failure to reach agreement with the EU. This will be an incredible victory for UKIP in one sense- a one policy party to all intents and purposes- and testimony to what a small but determined party can achieve in politics.  But it would also ironically signify their demise as a party. It brings to mind George Bernard Shaw’s comment that nationalism can be a wonderful beast to ride in order to achieve independence. But once that situation is reached, the mare invariably drops dead, with the resulting smell  showing that it had been decomposing for years previous to that point.

Bennett’s gambit to waft a new aroma into the public’s nostrils

Gareth Bennett’s gambit is to try and take away the realisation that UKIP is indeed a bad smell by now by attempting to waft in a new aroma to the public’s nostrils, i.e that they have a brand new new raison d’etre, which is  to abolish the Welsh Assembly. Which would also of course keep Gareth and his merry men in lucrative employment on the gravy train in Cardiff Bay for a further five years. Killing two birds with one stone so to speak. Clever in its own way.

It’s also very likely that UKIP Wales are being used as some form of trojan horse by the British state to bring Wales to heel after Brexit, and that they want to steal a march on the nationalist movement by bringing this issue to the fore immediately.

There was of course a fierce reaction from the usual great and the good crowd in Wales to UKIP’s announcement, a sense of outrage that they could even think of such a move. But, perhaps UKIP have given nationalists here an opportunity. Why not not turn it on its head, welcome UKIP’s move and seek to turn it instead into a referendum on independence for Wales? A binary choice in effect between Abolition and Independence. UKIP could be doing everyone a big favour by setting out their stall so early for a referendum in 2024. And that before any official campaign by a nationalist party here!

Just think- it would force the two main parties in Wales, Welsh Labour and Conservatives AM to climb off the fence and decide which way they want to go. Do they want Independence or do they want to Abolish the Assembly? It would be such a shame for these members to lose their lucrative £70,000 + packages in the Bay don’t you think?

30% hardcore unionist vote here in Wales

UKIP got 14% of the vote in the last Assembly Election in 2016. One could probably imagine that they could appeal to a further 16% of what would be a hard-core British unionist vote in Wales with their move to abolish the Assembly. No doubt, up to another 10% to 15% could be persuaded that indeed devolution has been a complete failure here in Wales, and that it would make more sense to return to the apron strings of Mother Westminster. Perhaps a 45% upper target for Abolition then.

That would leave a possible 55% starting point for an Independence campaign, made up of what could be termed a large soft nationalist vote( mainly traditional Labour voters with a strong sense of Welsh identity) and a smaller hard nationalist vote( Plaid, Ein GWLAD, YES Cymru etc). Those two segments would probably be need to be augmented by another sector of the population, who would not necessarily sign up to a traditional nationalist narrative, but who could however be inspired by the possibilities of renewing Welsh democracy and introducing a raft of new policies to meet the challenges of today’s society.

Even looking ahead 5 years, it’s obvious that such a vote would be difficult to win. UKIP’s core message about the failures of devolution would be sure to strike a chord with many people in Wales, outside the self-regarding bubble in the bay, and their associated bubbles in the media and various cultural sectors here.

A vulture in Cardiff  feasting on attention, resources and people

People here in the north for example would say that the devolution years have done very little for communities up here. All devolution has done is create a vulture in Cardiff which feasts on attention, resources and people from up here. And that would also be the story in the rest of rural Wales and the valleys as well. There’s a huge audience for that story here unfortunately.

So, in a way, UKIP will have a head start in the campaign since they can point to the last twenty years of devolution failures. That makes it even more imperative that a politically-led Independence campaign kicks off right now. YES Cymru are doing some grand work in this respect. Plaid have now come on board. And of course, Independence is at the heart of the Ein GWLAD manifesto released last week.

But perhaps the different independence-supporting segments will also need to delve a little deeper into the kind of success that UKIP have enjoyed here in Wales over the past few years, rather than dismissing them just as racists and intolerant individuals. To acknowledge that UKIP have been able to tap into some of the cultural, social and economic concerns of people here that have been ignored by the governing elite in both London and Cardiff Bay.

So, thanks Gareth for firing the starting gun on a Welsh Independence campaign. Well done!

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